A growing consensus is emerging among humanitarian agencies and economists in April 2026. The ongoing conflict involving Iran is setting off a chain reaction that could push millions into hunger, not because Iran is a major food exporter, but because it sits at the heart of systems that make global food production possible.

What makes this crisis particularly alarming is that it is not sudden or unpredictable. Experts describe it as “foreseeable,” driven by clear structural disruptions that are already unfolding across fertilizer supply, energy markets, and humanitarian logistics.

The Fertilizer Bottleneck Threatening Global Harvests

At the center of the الأزمة is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical trade routes. A significant portion of global fertilizer supply passes through this narrow corridor, including large shares of urea and ammonia, both essential for modern agriculture.
With the conflict disrupting movement through the strait, fertilizer markets have been thrown into turmoil. Nitrogen-based fertilizers, which rely heavily on natural gas for production, have seen sharp price increases as supply tightens. In the early weeks alone, urea prices surged by nearly 50%.

This is hitting at the worst possible time. Farmers across the Northern Hemisphere are currently in their spring planting season. Many are now being forced to plant with reduced or no fertilizer, a decision that could significantly lower yields later in the year.
The concern is not just about one harvest. Experts warn this could trigger a multi-year cycle of reduced food production, tightening global supply well into the future.

When Energy Prices Rise, Food Prices Follow

The connection between energy and food is direct and unavoidable. As oil prices climb above $100 per barrel due to the conflict, the cost of producing and delivering food rises at every stage.

From fueling tractors and irrigation systems to powering storage facilities and transporting goods across continents, higher energy costs ripple through the entire supply chain. These increases are rarely absorbed by producers. Instead, they are passed on to consumers, pushing food prices higher across global markets.
According to the World Food Programme, if the conflict continues through mid-2026, an additional 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity.

Aid Stalled as Humanitarian Corridors Break Down

Beyond production and pricing, the war is physically blocking food from reaching those who need it most. Tens of thousands of metric tons of aid are currently stranded on cargo ships, unable to pass through disrupted shipping routes.
This is particularly dangerous for countries that rely heavily on imports to feed their populations. Nations such as Sudan, Somalia, and Afghanistan are especially vulnerable, with fragile food systems already under pressure.

In East and Southern Africa, the situation is becoming increasingly urgent. The World Food Programme projects a significant rise in food insecurity as both prices and delays compound existing challenges.

The Global Impact by Late 2026

Projections paint a worrying picture across multiple regions. Asia could see a 24% increase in acute hunger, while West and Central Africa may experience a 21% rise. East and Southern Africa are expected to follow closely, with nearly an 18% increase, alongside similar trends in Latin America.
These figures reflect not just temporary disruption, but a systemic shock to how food is produced, transported, and accessed globally.

A Warning the World Cannot Ignore

Renowned chef and humanitarian José Andrés of World Central Kitchen has warned that the world is “sleepwalking” into a preventable disaster.
His concern highlights a stark divide. In wealthier nations, rising food prices may translate into modest increases at the supermarket. But for millions in lower-income regions, where households already spend the majority of their income on food, even a small price hike can mean the difference between eating and going hungry.

A Crisis Already in Motion

This is not a distant threat. The mechanisms driving this crisis are already active, and their effects are beginning to surface.
From disrupted fertilizer supplies to rising fuel costs and blocked aid shipments, the Iran conflict is exposing just how fragile the global food system has become. If the situation persists, the consequences will not be confined to one region. They will be felt worldwide, with the heaviest burden falling on those least able to absorb it.

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