Bahrain’s state owned energy company Bapco Energies has declared force majeure on its operations and shipments after a major attack damaged the country’s primary oil refinery, sending shockwaves through global energy markets.

The announcement came on March 9, 2026 following an Iranian drone and missile strike on the Sitra Refinery in Bahrain. The facility, located near the Al Ma’ameer industrial area, is the kingdom’s only major oil refinery and has a production capacity of roughly 405,000 barrels per day after recent upgrades.

The attack triggered fires and significant structural damage at the facility, with reports indicating that dozens of civilians were injured. Thick smoke plumes were seen rising across the refinery complex after the explosions.

What the Force Majeure Means

By declaring force majeure, Bapco Energies is legally suspending its contractual obligations to supply oil and petroleum products due to circumstances beyond its control.

The company said the decision was necessary because of the ongoing regional conflict and the direct damage to the refinery, which has disrupted export operations and international shipments.

Officials stated that domestic fuel supplies within Bahrain remain secure through contingency arrangements, but exports to international markets could face delays or cancellations.

Escalation in Middle East Energy Infrastructure Attacks

The refinery strike is part of a broader escalation involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, with Gulf energy infrastructure increasingly becoming a target.

Several Gulf states including Qatar and Kuwait have reported disruptions or security threats to energy facilities in recent weeks.

The situation has already pushed global crude oil prices sharply higher, with some benchmarks approaching or surpassing 100 dollars per barrel amid fears of supply shortages.

Potential Impact on Uganda

The developments could have direct consequences for fuel prices in Uganda, which depends heavily on imported refined petroleum products such as petrol, diesel, and kerosene.

Uganda currently lacks large scale domestic refining capacity, though the planned Uganda Oil Refinery project is still under development.

In recent years, Uganda shifted away from sourcing fuel through Kenya’s government to government supply system, choosing instead to pursue direct import arrangements with international traders.

One key relationship involves Vitol Bahrain, part of the global commodities trading group Vitol, which has been linked to financing and supply deals supporting Uganda’s petroleum imports.

Trade data indicates that Uganda has imported millions of dollars worth of petroleum products from Bahrain, making disruptions at the Sitra refinery a potential concern for supply chains.

Rising Fuel Prices and Economic Pressure

If Bahrain’s exports remain disrupted, Uganda may be forced to source fuel from alternative suppliers in countries such as United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, or even more distant markets in Europe or Asia.

Such shifts could increase freight costs, insurance premiums, and delivery times, pushing up import prices.

Because Uganda’s fuel prices are largely market driven, any increase in global oil costs usually translates directly into higher pump prices.

Higher fuel prices could quickly ripple through the economy, affecting transport services such as boda bodas and taxis, increasing logistics costs for businesses, and raising the price of food and other goods.

Regional Supply Competition

East African countries often rely on the same network of global oil traders and shipping routes. If Bahrain’s supply volumes shrink, countries like Kenya and Uganda may compete for shipments from alternative suppliers.

This could lead to tighter supply availability at regional ports and further price volatility.

A Fragile Energy Outlook

While strategic reserves and diversified supply contracts may soften the immediate impact, prolonged instability in the Gulf could strain fuel security across import dependent economies.

For many Ugandans already dealing with rising living costs, sustained increases in global oil prices could translate into higher transport fares, food prices, and broader inflation pressures.